It’s been a month since we last did a market update for Carmel, and in the last update we discovered a disturbing trend.  Inventory had climbed to an unusually high number.  As seasonal trends predict, inventory has continued to rise since then to an extremely high 205 single family homes available today.  For comparison, inventory was at 152 this time last year.

Along with these high inventory numbers, sales have decreased to 23 in the rolling quarter vs. 30 during the same period last year (7 in the last 30 days).  One bright spot in our numbers is the pending sales figure, which has increased to a very good 18 in the last 30 days vs.  a healthy 14 in the 30 day period prior.

But Grant, you say, in last month’s update you called the 14 pendings a “bright spot” as well?  Yes, in fact, I did.  Where did those pending sales go?  Good question.  I was wondering the same thing myself.  So, I did some more analysis and found another disturbing trend, at least for us Realtors.  As you may recall from a previous blog post, I did some research on the number of transactions that typically fall thru and came to the conclusion that about 25% of transactions don’t make it to the closing table.  Turns out that number has increased sharply in Carmel.  Over the last rolling quarter, a full 39% of transactions have fallen out of escrow (16 of 41).  Yikes!  It’s difficult to say exactly why this is, but this certainly helps to explain the lower sales numbers.  We will continue to monitor the TFT (Transaction Fell Thru) rate to see if this trend continues.

The bottom line is that there has rarely been this kind of combination of choice and value in Carmel real estate.  If you’re a buyer, now’s a great time to choose your Carmel dream home and negotiate a great deal.  If you’re a seller, you have lots of competition and only a few buyers.  Be sure you price your property right, or it may sit for a very long time.