After reporting a glimmer of an improving market in our last couple blog posts, today’s closer look at the Carmel market reveals a disturbing trend. Over the last 30 days where we expected to see 12-15 sales we see only 6, and at the same time inventory has rocketed to 199 single family homes compared to 150 this time last year. If we look back 90 days we see a bit steadier picture with 28 homes selling versus 26 a year ago. However, increasing inventory plus a reduced number of sales, at least for the last 30 days, equals downward pressure on prices. One 30 day period of slow sales isn’t enough to declare the recovery stalled just yet, especially since pendings in the last 30 days is at a healthy 14, but the higher inventory numbers are troublesome. We will continue to monitor these numbers for signs of improvement.

  1. Grant,
    Are people expecting the Carmel market to go to the levels of the San Francisco/San Jose? I noticed while browsing there are a ton of price reductions in Carmel. Are these fairly new?
    It seems like it is best to be cautious if Carmel values are only down 15% while SF is down about 40%.
    Perhaps 2010 is the year to buy?
    I get a lot out of your well written blogs.
    Thank you, Will

  2. Will, thanks for your questions. Actually, Carmel values have decreased significantly more than 15% since the peaks of 2005. We estimate values have dropped closer to 35% in Carmel over the last four years or so. While there have been many price reductions in Carmel recently, this has been the trend for the last couple years as sellers come to grips with the reality of today’s home values. I predict that whether you buy in 2009 or even early 201o, in 5-10 years they will both look like they were great years to buy in Carmel. Having said that, buyers today are negotiating fantastic deals that may not even be available in a year’s time. If you’re looking to buy, I can’t imagine a better time than now. Inventory is high, rates are low, and sellers are frustrated.

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