We’ve seen a recent flurry of market activity within our team in the last week or two so we thought it might be time to revisit the underlying market statistics again.  We’ve analysed Carmel, Carmel Valley, and Pebble beach.  Here’s what we found in this morning’s analysis:

Carmel: Total June, July, and August sales this year are lower than last year’s total (54 vs. 36 last year), but there have been 16 sales in the last 30 days and there are 20 pending which indicates a strong September and October to come.  Inventory is significantly lower today than this time last year (177 vs 149).  These numbers equate to an 8 month supply of homes on the market.  This data indicates a move towards a more balanced market in Carmel.

Carmel Valley: Total June, July and August sales in Carmel Valley are also lower than last year for the same period (16 vs. 24 last year).  As a distinct contrast to Carmel, Carmel Valley inventory levels have climbed to 144, eclipsing last year’s seasonally consistent summer peak of 132.  These numbers equate to an insanely slow 27 months of inventory!  Slow sales combined with high inventory levels add up to a slow market that isn’t quite ready to improve.  We’ll be watching Carmel Valley closely though as many sellers have reduced their prices to very attractive levels.  The contrast between Carmel and Carmel Valley markets probably has something to do with the general difference between cash buyers (Carmel) and financed buyers (Carmel Valley) and the trend that loans are harder to come by these days.  The recent fires probably had a negative impact on sales activity over the summer as well.

Pebble Beach: Total June, July and August sales in Pebble Beach are exactly the same as the same period last year (21 sales).  Inventory is roughly the same as well (117 vs. 115 a year ago).  These numbers equate to a very slow 17 months of inventory.  This falls between the faster market pace of Carmel and the very slow pace of Carmel Valley.  I would expect Pebble Beach to move closer to the Carmel market as the overall real estate market improves.